SETBACK FOR GOP – AT 8:37 A.M. ET:  Let's not sugarcoat it.  The Republican Party suffered a setback yesterday when it lost a House seat in a special election in New York's 26th Congressional District, a Republican district.

The election was being run to replace disgraced Congressman Christopher Lee, who resigned after revelations that the married gent was looking for love online. 

County Clerk Kathy Hochul won a House special election in western New York on Tuesday night, a Democratic triumph in a conservative district that many regarded a referendum on House Republicans’ efforts to reform Medicare.

With 90 percent of precincts reporting, Hochul had 48 percent of the vote. State Assemblywoman Jane Corwin (R) had 42 percent, with independent candidate Jack Davis running a distant third with 9 percent.

Democrats contended that the race in New York’s 26th Congressional District — which the GOP had held since the 1960s — became competitive through their efforts tying Corwin to the House Republican budget plan that included a provision to turn Medicare into a voucher program.

The Democrats are correct.  Yes, it is true that the third candidate probably took more votes from the Republican candidate than from the winner, but Hochul would have won anyway in a district that went for McCain in 2008.

This is a warning to the Republican Party:  We've said several times here at Urgent Agenda that the Medicare component of the brave Ryan budget was its weakest link.  Medicare must be reformed, but turning it into a voucher program to be be run largely by unpopular private insurance companies will not pass muster with the public.  Medicare is popular.  People have planned their retirement with Medicare benefits in mind.  We can debate its merits, and surely there is widespread agreement that the program is filled with cost overruns that will eventually kill it unless it is changed.  But how it's changed is the key point.

Tying the GOP candidate to the Ryan Medicare plan in a normally conservative district had devastating results.  I suspect the Republicans will now distance themselves from that part of the Ryan budget, and that is the wise move.  Come back and fight another day, but fight smarter, and with better weapons.

May 25, 2011